Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 85975.394253 90705.549996 95431.239235 100503.388752 105789.884519 111133.965203 116941.162339
2024-12-22 77482.692654 84678.509307 92066.764542 100209.181079 108920.312446 117949.899022 128006.456456
2024-12-29 72734.764579 81717.879424 91139.845164 101737.303070 113302.818864 125519.708456 139378.009709
2025-01-05 68740.944331 79052.941437 90063.824340 102660.044019 116634.169745 131624.822616 148884.237918
2025-01-12 64924.020303 76228.321148 88491.390942 102730.475645 118754.633335 136175.520750 156490.949955
2025-01-19 61524.084487 73615.336731 86922.025980 102581.660243 120431.507733 140069.145587 163229.969242
2025-01-26 59789.638514 72746.166721 87186.843805 104381.841608 124201.362326 146231.259018 172467.581137
2025-02-02 58252.396805 71986.700629 87475.047513 106118.412694 127828.009527 152186.162959 181452.785617
2025-02-09 56333.871909 70669.780696 87020.436208 106907.089324 130291.044010 156762.328987 188834.533802
2025-02-16 54075.746519 68842.935337 85872.540302 106794.897542 131629.419797 159984.620596 194615.401410
2025-02-23 52360.833427 67585.952265 85325.852834 107326.271677 133669.077278 163984.839383 201283.252486
2025-03-02 50514.673655 66091.537945 84425.492928 107371.229544 135079.075912 167209.777042 207021.682237
2025-03-09 49413.039842 65492.746673 84601.753675 108725.826546 138090.280502 172387.478983 215166.875057
2025-03-16 47495.689939 63817.830251 83412.665345 108375.947457 139016.385049 175072.151377 220355.473315
2025-03-23 46685.259745 63492.379983 83850.878665 109995.079358 142320.133460 180606.806512 228980.424072
2025-03-30 45620.304798 62800.043906 83796.769195 110975.675131 144824.027895 185173.630400 236454.763160
2025-04-06 44189.640963 61588.455744 83047.658887 111050.259660 146180.606654 188330.914622 242218.679107
2025-04-13 42731.382066 60291.583602 82145.953045 110891.748720 147214.357567 191072.439655 247468.125303
2025-04-20 42293.975780 60305.181099 82894.180179 112807.959116 150837.397218 197003.390081 256656.504560
2025-04-27 41854.411495 60294.514913 83595.715562 114656.092155 154376.852025 202846.464552 265770.666955
2025-05-04 41001.716828 59705.084808 83525.161375 115495.314868 156630.767687 207096.673290 272930.774149
2025-05-11 39783.026405 58587.963175 82734.901836 115375.936992 157642.893727 209786.054774 278149.832133
2025-05-18 38905.122923 57903.989687 82487.922538 115941.332192 159517.058494 213552.182976 284724.993669